Another Lesson of Typhoons

Reading this nice blog written by Mike make me realize perhaps there is another lesson from typhoons: the danger of unpredictability and the lack of understanding about unpredictability.

I don’t want to be a warmonger etc, but we have to be realistic.  Clearly China is building up significant forces, whether or not it is claiming the so called “peaceful rise.”  Just like Typhoon Morakat, which does not first appear to be a significant typhoon as the weather bureau’s prediction shows.    However, as it reaches Taiwan and bring down more and more rain, the weather bureau starts to adjust the rainfall prediction up rapidly.  During this time, where are Ma and his officials?  They are partying in different places when the rain fall reaches critical amount.  Later Ma blames the weather bureau for inaccurate prediction.  However, as we all know, weather and typhoons, by their very nature,  are unpredictable.  The best you can get is some scientific estimation (and not necessary accurate estimation as it could be way off sometimes.  This is just common sense).  Ma and his officials’ lack of understanding of the unpredictability of typhoons make them over confident,  careless and ill prepared.

Now looking back to China, obviously they are building up their military forces.  It is not easy to predict just how effective their military is.  However, just like typhoon, we cannot afford to be careless, even if “the tie is warming” as those stupid media likes to put it.  The wind might appear weak, but the rain might be deadly.  Or maybe the cloud is thin, but the wind is extra strong.  You never know.  Also, listen to what Ma said during his news conference, and you know he and his advisers seem to understand very little about national defense.  Their lack of understanding, IMO, will once again make them over confident,  careless and ill prepared in this area.

Furthermore, it is not just being careful during time of crisis, it is also about taking actions in the face of rising storm.  Year after year, Taiwan was hit by countless Typhoons.  Every now and then, there are different disasters occurring.  Sometimes more severe, sometimes less.  However, despite all these, Taiwan does not seem to be  prepared enough for them.  The damage of flooding, for example, could be lowered or avoided if good water and river management system and policies were in place.

The same goes for the military buildups in China.  We see the buildups, but is Taiwan doing something about it?  And what direction should Taiwan take to counter such buildups?  Those are very valid and important question, but I wonder if anyone puts enough thoughts or actions into answering them.  Just like Typhoons, after each one, people complain about them, but are there enough actions taken to prevent the next possible disaster?

Similar to the typhoons, there are a lot of warnings about China, and the warning is getting stronger and stronger.  However, one wonders if the government is still partying despite the rising warnings, like what they did when Typhoon Morakat made its landfall?


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