Su Chi Step Down: A Sudden Move? Or A Timely Outcome

A lot of people are surprised by the recent step down of National Security Council (NSC) Secretary-General Su Chi.  I was also surprised, because he could have stepped down a few months ago.  Why now?

 However, after a few weeks, one can realize that step down is actually a good move.  After the Lunar New Year (or as most foreign call it, Chinese New Year…interestingly in Chinese, it’s not called Chinese New Year, but when they translated to English, they just have to add “Chinese” into it.  Idiots.  Heard some news that some Korean communities in the US are complaining, and they decide to change it to “Asian” New Year.  lol…I suspect next the Japanese and Philippine will complain…hey, WTF, we don’t have such New Year, why call it Asian New Year?  Are you racists?  But I cannot come up with a good name neither, so I will just call it Lunar New Year for now), people seem to forgot about all the beef fiasco created by Su Chi and Ma.  Some people even start to sympathize with Su Chi, saying something like he is actually a good man, just in the wrong place at the wrong time etc.  So an arrogant and incompetent official has become a victim of some sort.  Pure Genius.  People seem to forgot that his wife and his brother are doing business in China…and he is Secretary-General of What?  National Security Council?  Just by that he is unfit to the position.

But now let’s get to the point.  Most people, including me, are surprised, of course.  However, now I actually come up with a conspiracy theory that explain why his departure is in a timely manner.  Here it is:

The beef with bone negotiation thing with the US are to achieve two things:

  • Show to the US that Taiwan is not completely leaning toward China (when in fact Ma admin is lowering Taiwan’s defense faster than anyone anticipated)
  • Use this to stir up anti-American sentiment in Taiwan.

Ok, now you might wonder why stir up anti-American sentiment and how do they figure this beef thing will do that?

Why 1 –  Because Ma administration does not really want to buy any weapons from the US due to its complete pro-China view and his eventual unification goal.  However, he cannot refuse, because he promised to the US before that he would buy, not buying risks going against the US government or even the CIA.  Also, the military, although containing a lot of KMT supporters, cannot accept such refusal.  Furthermore, the backlash and panic of Taiwanese would be great, to the point that it might topple to government.  Therefore, Ma admin cannot right out refuse.  It has to stir up anti-American sentiment.

Why 2 – similarly to Why 1, Ma administration also hopes that the US actually refuse to sell weapons to Taiwan.  One way to achieve this is to messed up a deal with the US, such as  a beef deal. 

How do they figure this will work – I believe they follow the violent anti-American protest of South Korea after Korean government made the same stupid deal with the US, and want to replicate it.  Any sane and competent government, after seeing what happened in South Korea, would act carefully when dealing with similar issue.  But Ma administration actually goes the opposite way.  They charge right in as if they really really want to mess things up big time. 

However, they miscalculated the internal and external situation.  Internally, Taiwanese simply does not react the same way Korean do.  Although there are attempts by KMT to stir up anti-American sentiment and putting the blame on the US, overall it does not work too well.  Instead, blames are put squarely onto Su-Chi, Ma’s personal human shield (I believe Ma and his team are  the one making up this scheme, Shu Chi is just a glove doing the dirty work).  Externally the US also did not react the same way they expected.  In the end, the US still decided to sell Taiwan weapons, although the F-16 C/D and submarines sells are not granted…and perhaps they at least succeed in blocking those two.  (Of course, I think the US did not sell F-16 and subs because the US administrations are chickens when it comes to arm sell to Taiwan.  If it isn’t the TRA, they would use the arm requests document as toilet paper.  They probably feel more comfortable selling F-16 C/D to North Korea.  But who knows).

Since the scheme is over, most ultimently did not accomplish the 2 goals (create wide spread anti-American sentiment in Taiwan stop the US from selling arms) , Su Chi just step down.  Like he said, he has accomplished the interim tasks of the Ma administration.

Now the next dude that step in as NSC secretary-general, Hu Wei-jen, is even worse than Su Chi, in my opinion.  People should watch out for this guy, because based on his past record, he cannot be doing much good to Taiwan, but indeed doing harms.

UPDATE: A new editorial from Liberty Times on the related issue.  Actually one would not be too surprised if they change officials.  What is funny is how the pan-blue media once again tries to describe them as saviors.  The editorial is quite insightful though and pointed out how the root problem with Ma administration is not really who they use, but the wrong direction of policies and attitude.  (The article describe Ma’s attitude as that of the KMT 20 years ago during 蔣經國’s time when “KMT leads the government,” but that type of posture and attitude simply does not work anymore in today’s Taiwan.) 

UPDATE 2: Another article from Libert on the same topic.

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