Archive for November, 2010|Monthly archive page

Random Thoughts on Election Result

Following is just some random thoughts…no real organizations:

The 5 metropolitan area election is over. KMT maintains the hold of the 3 metropolitan areas, and DPP maintains the 2, although DPP did gain substantial increase of votes overall (now the situation is really 50-50, not 40-60). The result I would say is a stalemate. Neither side really gain much when all things considered. Even the city console election reflects this situation (130 DPP and 130 KMT). Therefore, although DPP continue to gain support after Ma became president, DPP did not win this election.

On the one hand, there were so many things going wrong for KMT, it is really a surprise to me (and probably a lot of people) that they are still able to hold the 3 metropolitan areas. On the other hand, they are indeed losing votes. From the DPP’s perspective, it really sucks that after so much KMT screw up they still cannot gain 1 extra metropolitan area. But then again, they are able to gain more votes overall. Comparing to the elections before, this is probably the best result yet. However, it is true that the pace of DPP’s gain of support is not as fast as people thought, and I think that is the main reason for the disappointment. It is also quite interesting to observe that changes seem to come slowly in Taiwan. We usually don’t see a dramatic victory or loss over the years actually, at least for DPP.

Another thing that is really a surprise is how well DPP did in Taichung. It is not a surprise if we consider how Hu gradually losing votes and Su gaining votes over the course of the election. However, it is quite surprising if considering people’s expectation at the beginning of the election, when Hu has solid support. But I guess in the end the changes is not enough at the time of the election. It might be that if Su is given 1 or 2 more months, he might just win the Taichung election.

Another thing that DPP has to wonder about is why people in Taipei continue to have strong support KMT candidates. There might be two reasons. One is that majority of people in Taipei simply benefit more or have the perception that they gain more by supporting KMT. Now, maybe for these type of people, there is simply no way DPP can gain their votes, because their interests simply do not align with what DPP offers. Therefore, perhaps DPP should take this into considerations. Sure, DPP seems to gian ground in the younger voters, but there are a lot of older people in Taipei as well, and probably more than half of them will vote for KMT by default.

People really have to ponder on this one thing though: what does the high expenses of flora expo in Taipei really accomplish for Taiwan? Do Taipei citizens feel any better, more secure after the flora expo? How does the whole Taiwan feel about it? Shouldn’t the money be spent on something more worth while? The lack of strategic direction for Taipei is really scary. They can spend millions, putting Taipei City in huge deficit, to accomplish absolute NOTHING. I would say to pan green, don’t give up. Hau might have won the election, but their policy is absolutely a disaster when you look at it from the long-term perspective. Keep examining them, and truth will triumph.  (But again for those who don’t care…you simply just cannot win them over, and that is the unfortunate reality)

However, for DPP’s own benefits, I think it’s better for them to take this as losing (or at least not winning) and reassess: where they can win, where they cannot win, and how to win in the former completely.  (where in this case is not just geographical, but demographical and social as well).

There are a few things that worry me though:
KMT will interpret this as an approval of ECFA and further leaning toward China.  Given KMT’s past record of moving ahead even without solid support, approximately 45% support might seem to be enough for them to continue the current trend. The problem is not for DPP, but for Taiwan overall. Because strategically speaking KMT could create a huge blunder for Taiwan in the next 2 years.

PS.  The shooting of Sean Lien, some think it has a negative impact on DPP etc.  However, just how big or small the effects are is really difficult to assess.  Suffice to say though the shooting might add to the inaccuracy of the election.  In any case, I just hope things become clear later and KMT won’t try to hide stuff (because some of their politicians did try to use to incident to rally their supporters…they might try to exaggerate or cover up things to save face…we will have to wait and see).  However, I think overall it could not just be because of that single bullet….And if there are people who vote for KMT based on a single incident,  can DPP ever gain their supports anyway?

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More Good Info on the Yang Incident

Pfge did a very good job of collecting the facts and analysis over the past few days here:

比較「趙磊」栽贓楊淑君作弊的不同說法

The Burning, The Blockade and The Smear

I was very busy over the past month, so there is no time for me to write stuff.  But these recent events really piss me off somewhat. 

The first one is the burning of the Taiwanese singer, Selina, during filming involving explosives in Shanghai.  The second is Chinese officials’ blocking in Tokyo Film Festival, which prevent Taiwanese actors and actress to walk the green carpet.  The 3rd just happens yesterday, in Guangzhou 2010 asian para games in China, where Taiwanese Taekwondo competitor, Yang, got disqualified because of accusation of socks problems.

These stuffs are not related, and I am not involved of course, but adding them together make me feel the need to release the rage a little.  They all involve Taiwanese women getting hurt in China or by Chinese officials.  The first one it’s both physical and emotional.  The second one it’s emotional (twice).  The third one IMO is a personal insult.  I am sure all these women are strong in their own way, and with their family and friends’ support, they will get over it somehow.  But still I feel pissed off.

I know for the 3rd, there still requires some clarifications on details…I might be biased, like many Taiwanese now, but based on current information, I am heavily leaning on Chinese officials meddling the affair.  Especially Chinese Taekondo Association’s official, 趙磊, could be really problematic.  Unfortunately…I think only a few Taiwanese media will try to find out what exactly happened.

At the same time, now some people, especially KMT supporters, once again try to direct public discontent over this incident toward South Korea, and ignore China.  Now I just find this retarded.  South Korea is not even involved in this shit.  Sure, one of the judge is Korean by ethnicity, but that’s one guy.  Furthermore, he was told by趙磊 to stop the match basically (in you watch the video over the incident).  Can you blame the US for the 2008 Olympic Baseball’s rigged schedule that result in Taiwanese team’s loss just because baseball originated in the US?  No.  Speaking of which, did any M****r F*****g officials follow-up on that shit?  Anyway, I think the public should focus the attention on the matter that just happen in China, not some 3rd party that is not even directly involved.

With all these bad news for Taiwanese women, fortunately there is one good news.  The Electronic Sport League (ESL) EU Crowns Taiwan’s Linda champion in second ESL EU female gaming tournament of Starcraft 2.  Yea, who gives a flying f**k about Guangzhou 2010?  Starcraft 2 tournament is more fun to watch.

Less than 30 Days for Metropolitan Elections

The five metropolitan elections are coming soon (Nov 27, 2010).  I think for the first time, DPP really have winning chances in all 5 cities.  To me, the choice is quite obvious, because each DPP candidate in each city is just superior.

However, I am not totally optimistic about the situation yet.  Taipei City, New Taipei City and Taichung City are still traditional KMT strong hold.  Although their candidates are really weak, the survey still shows 50-50 in both Taipei City and KMT’s Hu with a slight edge over DPP’s Su.  But there is still a month to go, so many things can happen. 

DPP apparently also gain quite a food hold in younger voters, which is quite an achievement in itself.  However, they really have to mobilize these younger people to vote in order to turn support into results.

What is China Up to?

I found this report on some forum discussion a bit interesting.  The discussion that came out all seem quite obvious, especially for those who paid attention to Taiwan for the past decade.  But perhaps for those who only pay attention to China for the past 10 years, Chinese behaviour become something of a puzzle.

To those observe from Taiwan’s perspective, Chinese policy and strategy seems quite consistent.  They never change much.  But to those outside, the recent expansionism attitude from China might strike as odd because they are not used to it, whereas those Taiwanese who paid attention notice them frequently and recognize the pattern.

Something about how Chinese recent aggression is some sort of result of self prophecy is very interesting though, and I think it might be true.  People often underestimate the power of human psychology.  Consolidating this and from the one taking about Chinese thinker using “warning” state era as a model, we can summarize:

  1. One view is that China’s previous conformity to international rules set by the west is only a temporary mean to obtain an end – Chinese hegemony in Asia and ascension to become a global super power.  This is not too different from the traditional Chinese rulers’ world view, in which China is the centre (especially centre of Asia where all minor states have to pay tribute) and the top of a hierarchical world.  In their view, that is the road to order and peace.  (In Chinese movies, this is quite evident.  Heroes often have to “unify” China to bring order and peace.  When China is unified, all the minor states around China pay tribute…this is part of Chinese ancient history and mythos).
  2. Because people keep saying “rise of China” and “21st century belong to China” etc, Chinese thinkers and general public have become arrogant about the state of their country.  Who wouldn’t?  If most people around me keep saying I have become stronger I will naturally think that I have become stronger.  Furthermore, because things seem to be working out very well, call for democracy or political reform has been largely marginalized.

Adding to all this is that in the past decade, the US really suffered economically and in wars.  Although technological advancement (such as internet and its utilization innovation) still largely come from the US, its economic problems have become quite severe.  Even worse, China and the US now have this huge trade deficit problem.  This globalization really has created some serious problems which those economists have not foresee or fail to come up with a new paradigm.  I am no expert in this trade thing so I don’t want to dig too deep into it.  But I think it is suffice to say that people on either side are happy (American thinks they are losing jobs to China because Chinese artificial suppression of RMB, while Chinese thinks that the US just want to ruin China or use China as a scapegoat).

In conclusion, I think the combination of Chinese leader’s (and its people’s) traditional mindset, West’s corporations’ and leaders’ over flattering attitude and appeasement toward China, and the macro global situation all create the current predicament we are in…As for what does all these mean for China and the world?  I really don’t have a clue, because it’s just too big of a topic for one person to comprehend.  But the question of what does it mean for Taiwan is probably more important for Taiwanese leaders.