Random Thoughts on Election Result

Following is just some random thoughts…no real organizations:

The 5 metropolitan area election is over. KMT maintains the hold of the 3 metropolitan areas, and DPP maintains the 2, although DPP did gain substantial increase of votes overall (now the situation is really 50-50, not 40-60). The result I would say is a stalemate. Neither side really gain much when all things considered. Even the city console election reflects this situation (130 DPP and 130 KMT). Therefore, although DPP continue to gain support after Ma became president, DPP did not win this election.

On the one hand, there were so many things going wrong for KMT, it is really a surprise to me (and probably a lot of people) that they are still able to hold the 3 metropolitan areas. On the other hand, they are indeed losing votes. From the DPP’s perspective, it really sucks that after so much KMT screw up they still cannot gain 1 extra metropolitan area. But then again, they are able to gain more votes overall. Comparing to the elections before, this is probably the best result yet. However, it is true that the pace of DPP’s gain of support is not as fast as people thought, and I think that is the main reason for the disappointment. It is also quite interesting to observe that changes seem to come slowly in Taiwan. We usually don’t see a dramatic victory or loss over the years actually, at least for DPP.

Another thing that is really a surprise is how well DPP did in Taichung. It is not a surprise if we consider how Hu gradually losing votes and Su gaining votes over the course of the election. However, it is quite surprising if considering people’s expectation at the beginning of the election, when Hu has solid support. But I guess in the end the changes is not enough at the time of the election. It might be that if Su is given 1 or 2 more months, he might just win the Taichung election.

Another thing that DPP has to wonder about is why people in Taipei continue to have strong support KMT candidates. There might be two reasons. One is that majority of people in Taipei simply benefit more or have the perception that they gain more by supporting KMT. Now, maybe for these type of people, there is simply no way DPP can gain their votes, because their interests simply do not align with what DPP offers. Therefore, perhaps DPP should take this into considerations. Sure, DPP seems to gian ground in the younger voters, but there are a lot of older people in Taipei as well, and probably more than half of them will vote for KMT by default.

People really have to ponder on this one thing though: what does the high expenses of flora expo in Taipei really accomplish for Taiwan? Do Taipei citizens feel any better, more secure after the flora expo? How does the whole Taiwan feel about it? Shouldn’t the money be spent on something more worth while? The lack of strategic direction for Taipei is really scary. They can spend millions, putting Taipei City in huge deficit, to accomplish absolute NOTHING. I would say to pan green, don’t give up. Hau might have won the election, but their policy is absolutely a disaster when you look at it from the long-term perspective. Keep examining them, and truth will triumph.  (But again for those who don’t care…you simply just cannot win them over, and that is the unfortunate reality)

However, for DPP’s own benefits, I think it’s better for them to take this as losing (or at least not winning) and reassess: where they can win, where they cannot win, and how to win in the former completely.  (where in this case is not just geographical, but demographical and social as well).

There are a few things that worry me though:
KMT will interpret this as an approval of ECFA and further leaning toward China.  Given KMT’s past record of moving ahead even without solid support, approximately 45% support might seem to be enough for them to continue the current trend. The problem is not for DPP, but for Taiwan overall. Because strategically speaking KMT could create a huge blunder for Taiwan in the next 2 years.

PS.  The shooting of Sean Lien, some think it has a negative impact on DPP etc.  However, just how big or small the effects are is really difficult to assess.  Suffice to say though the shooting might add to the inaccuracy of the election.  In any case, I just hope things become clear later and KMT won’t try to hide stuff (because some of their politicians did try to use to incident to rally their supporters…they might try to exaggerate or cover up things to save face…we will have to wait and see).  However, I think overall it could not just be because of that single bullet….And if there are people who vote for KMT based on a single incident,  can DPP ever gain their supports anyway?

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