Perhaps Too Naive?

王丹 and some pan green members now form some sort of platform or something like that, in an attempt to “influence” China, especially younger Chinese generation, toward democracy.  While I respect their intent, and understand what 王丹 is trying to do, I am very conservative and cautious whenever someone said that Taiwan can help China becoming democratic.  I feel those type of idea is way too naive, and I feel people have been using this type of pursuation to accomplish their own purpose and put Taiwan in danger.

There is no real difference between someone who said that “Taiwan can make China stronger by being part of China, ” and “Taiwan can influence China and help China become democratic by building a ‘platform’.”  Both are China centric thinking that fail to put Taiwan’s interests as first priority.  Therefore, it put Taiwan in a dangerous situation.  For example, business men in the 80s and 90s use these type of reasoning to get the government to open the flood gate, which resulted in huge out pour of Taiwanese capitals into China (some directly, some through Hong Kong, and some even circuvent the law).  The result: a much stronger China and a weakened Taiwan.  And do they actually steer China into the “democratic” direction?  Absolutely not.  China has increased its spending on military and now Taiwan’s options have been severely limited.  Other neigbouring countries also start to feel the heat.  SE countries felt threatened, South Korea feel constant pressure and threat from North Korea, which is backed by China.  Japan also felt threatened.  All these start from the justification that huge investment into China will help it democratize.  How wrong those people are.  Now, are we going to try that once again.

Now you might say, “this sounds really selfish.”  Yes, it is selfish.  For Taiwan to prosper and survive, it has to think of its own interest first.  If Taiwan is really strong, then perhaps it can help others with its limited capacity.  But now it is severely weakened, in economic, political and strategic term.  Especially now it is still in danger of being sold out by KMT, or losing its democracy and liberty.  I am confident that Taiwan could survive and emerge stronger, but it is weak right now.  Would you try to crack a rock by throwing an egg at it?

One of 王’s argument is that Chinese people are changing etc.  The problem is…I heard these a hundred times before as well, and I really question it.  Perhaps there are people who want more liberty in China, but I also heard that a lot of Chinese who don’t really care, and a lot are strong supporters of CCP.  Hong Kong used to be extremely prosperous, but do people in Hong Kong during that time really cares about politics and their rights?  Not necessarily.

IMO, Taiwan is simply too fragile to do anything significant.  If stronger nation such as US, UK and Japan failed to have any influence, how could Taiwan?  I think, in Taiwan’s best interest, it might actually be better if Taiwan can influence the smaller countries in Asia Pacific regions, instead of trying to move a giant block of rock like China.  In most of the Asian countries, democratic systems are still in a pretty crappy state.  Taiwan might have bigger impact in forming platforms with those smaller nations instead of forming platform with China.   Hong Kong might also be a potential target.   The point is, Taiwan’s power is limited, and it cannot do much with China.  In fact, it might get swallow when it move closer to China in any ways or forms, and that is what I really worry about.

But all these are not the real priority right now in Taiwan.  Taiwan is still an infant in terms of its democratic and legal systems.  One cannot hope for an infant to do much other than trying to survive and grow stronger.  I would thank god if this infant survive when it is right beside a giant greedy dragon.


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