Archive for the ‘Election’ Category

The Tide Finally Change

Hahaha, haven’t blog for a long time.  But the recent event is definitely worth a blog.

After many years of blue/green deadlock and the more recent pan blue dominance, the climate seems to finally change.  In the recent nine-in-one local election, KMT suffers a huge defeat.

I suppose this is partly due to the weak candidates that pan blue put out, but more importantly, I think this is partly a reflection of people’s worsening impression of KMT as a whole (especially younger generations).  There are a lot of different things that contribute to this, and probably different people see different issues.  Some see KMT’s sellout of Taiwan to China, some see the failed promises (especially economic promises, where KMT thought itself as the expert, but really, all they can come up with is China, China, China, and nothing else…IMO they completely miss the mark on how to improve Taiwan economically), some see worsening cronyism and government corruption…etc etc.  You can make a huge list on this, but the point is…under KMT, things seem to get worse.

Another way to look at it though, is that there are definitely something new, something very different going on.  I think that the younger generation has finally join into the politic discussion of Taiwan, and with them, the new technology and culture.  This is especially evident in Taipei City election, where Dr. Ko won again Mr. Lien, using a complete different strategy and tactics.

In any case, the hope for Taiwan now, I think, is that non-pan-blue elements can hold or even advance further…keep KMT out of power for at least 10 years.  This can force KMT to change fundamentally or fall apart completely, in which case, another political party can take over.  Part of Taiwan long time problem has always been KMT’s illegally gained deep pocket and other legacy left from martial law era.  So if the non-pan-blue does a good job, they have a chance to really change Taiwan for the better.

But then again, to be a practical pessimist, KMT is no push-over, and the Empire might strike back.  This is only the beginning.  There would be many more challenges ahead for Taiwan, I am sure.

More Thoughts 1:  In any case, it proves once again that…democracy, although not anywhere near perfect, is better than other system…just look at what is going on in Hong Kong and compare…

More Thoughts 2:  I think that history might put the Sun Flower Movement as the turning point of this whole thing, and I would agree.  The movement literally saved Taiwan from the point of no-return.  But what is probably equally important and interesting, are the events that lead up to the Sun Flower Movement, and how it affects the events after.


Worth A Read

This piece is worth a read.

You can say that Mr. 曹長青 is too conservative but he has some good point.  I also think that a lot of slogans DPP used during election are not clear and can give people the wrong impression.  The two slogans I do not like the most are 公平正義, which will remind Taiwanese of communism, and 大聯和政府,which sounds more idealistic than practical.

公平正義 is a prime example of bad slogan.  I think that what DPP wants to express here is to lower the payment and benefits to the government officials, and use the money for other more beneficiary purpose.  However, the slogan just sounds like DPP can be the judge of what is right and wrong, which is just too arrogant and too dictatorial like, and I think a lot of Taiwanese will be picky on that.  Therefore, DPP really needs to be careful of its slogans.

Also, some of DPP’s people really have to think about the party’s alignment, because I think actually a lot of Taiwanese do not like left leaning party.  Taiwanese ethic and culture believes more in people trying to stand on their own two feet, that is why the song 愛拼才會贏 is so popular in Taiwan.  Instead of just using left wing thinking like “fair” society etc, DPP should also think more along the line of creating more opportunities and create good environment for investment (without relying on China, which will create huge problems for Taiwan later).

Election Approaching

Only less than 2 months left until the presidential & legislature election for Taiwan.  The recent trend certainly looks very favorable to DPP.  However, optimism is still too much of a luxury right now I would say, given the past experience, KMT’s vast network and China in the backstage.

The good thing about the past 4 years is that it lets people remember or realize once again how bad KMT was and still is.  People had this false belief that KMT is very good at economy, when the economic miracle during that time is more of the result of Taiwanese hard work and the right global environment.  Furthermore, a lot of problems were also created during that time, but no one seems to notice.  Regardless, government might help in some area, and created problems in other area, but to say government can solve economic problem magically is just pure naivety.  Even if Tsai gets elected, there is no way she can improve Taiwanese economy to a whole new level.  However, government could setup a better direction and create a better economic environment, and this I believe Tsai has the ability to do, although still quite difficult.

The main point of this election IMO though, is about being realistic and honest to oneself.  There is no 633.  ECFA and China are not some miracle cure.  China’s intent toward Taiwan is clear and has so far never changed.  International environment  is tough for Taiwan, but Taiwan also has its advantages.  This is the current situation, and I hope Taiwanese will not be fooled by Ma’s lie and myth once again.

Ma’s Incompetence Gave Taiwan Another Chance

The presidential election is coming in a few month, and once again this could be a turning point…or not, we shall see.  But the fact of the matter is, Ma’s incompetence has given Taiwan another chance.  This might sound kind of counter intuitive, because if the President of Taiwan and his/her team are competent, then they will be able to provide Taiwan with a chance of further prosperity.  If they are incompetent, then they will wipe away opportunities and chances of better future.  However, it is so, because the direction Ma is taking is a completely wrong one.

If you are on a transportation vehicle heading toward a cliff running at full, and you already have lost control over it, you would most likely wish that this vehicle is a donkey instead  of a F-1 racing car, so you can jump off without getting killed.  This is exactly the situation Taiwan is facing now.

Many people bash Ma’s incompetence over the years, from burning the government treasury which creates huge debt, to lack of readiness and capability and crisis management, to over emphasis on media coverage without putting any real thought into how to manage the government and plan for Taiwan’s future….etc etc etc.  All these are valid and important, but I think what worries many, deep inside their hearts, is that Ma is leading Taiwan toward a point of no return.  The way Ma and China coordinate to bring Taiwan further and further into China’s orbit is quite evident in the past 3 years.

On the other hand, despite his incompetence, he is still able to fool many.  Unfortunately despite all his incompetence he is still a very good actor, and the media, whose industry consist mostly of traditional pan blue supporters, is able to give him a stage.  Plus the KMT have a complex web of connections in the local governmental organization, and of course they have a huge amount of “illegal” fund.  All these still give Ma plenty of support.

But, Taiwan is indeed blessed with another chance.  If Ma is a competent leader and if his team is very competent, they will be able to do an even better job at sugar-coating and misdirection…and less people will be able to recognize the problem and the risk.  Because of his incompetence, he busted his promises during election (such as 633…well that one and stock index to 20,000 are just too big of a bullshit even extremely competent people will not be able to accomplish), which cause more people to examine and realize that he does over promises and lies many times…

Sean Lien’s Shooting Incident Becomes More Confusing

As I suspected before, now the aftermath of Lien shooting incident becomes more and more confusing.

The stories and information on it change from one day to another, and the hospitals, police or other related organizations do not seem to want to become more transparent.  And some of the stories simply do not fit together.  Some people involved even seem to be lying.

Now this thing is becoming more and more like a black joke that involves mafia and KMT.  The most critical problem though is how KMT used and exaggerated during the night before the election.

Random Thoughts on Election Result

Following is just some random thoughts…no real organizations:

The 5 metropolitan area election is over. KMT maintains the hold of the 3 metropolitan areas, and DPP maintains the 2, although DPP did gain substantial increase of votes overall (now the situation is really 50-50, not 40-60). The result I would say is a stalemate. Neither side really gain much when all things considered. Even the city console election reflects this situation (130 DPP and 130 KMT). Therefore, although DPP continue to gain support after Ma became president, DPP did not win this election.

On the one hand, there were so many things going wrong for KMT, it is really a surprise to me (and probably a lot of people) that they are still able to hold the 3 metropolitan areas. On the other hand, they are indeed losing votes. From the DPP’s perspective, it really sucks that after so much KMT screw up they still cannot gain 1 extra metropolitan area. But then again, they are able to gain more votes overall. Comparing to the elections before, this is probably the best result yet. However, it is true that the pace of DPP’s gain of support is not as fast as people thought, and I think that is the main reason for the disappointment. It is also quite interesting to observe that changes seem to come slowly in Taiwan. We usually don’t see a dramatic victory or loss over the years actually, at least for DPP.

Another thing that is really a surprise is how well DPP did in Taichung. It is not a surprise if we consider how Hu gradually losing votes and Su gaining votes over the course of the election. However, it is quite surprising if considering people’s expectation at the beginning of the election, when Hu has solid support. But I guess in the end the changes is not enough at the time of the election. It might be that if Su is given 1 or 2 more months, he might just win the Taichung election.

Another thing that DPP has to wonder about is why people in Taipei continue to have strong support KMT candidates. There might be two reasons. One is that majority of people in Taipei simply benefit more or have the perception that they gain more by supporting KMT. Now, maybe for these type of people, there is simply no way DPP can gain their votes, because their interests simply do not align with what DPP offers. Therefore, perhaps DPP should take this into considerations. Sure, DPP seems to gian ground in the younger voters, but there are a lot of older people in Taipei as well, and probably more than half of them will vote for KMT by default.

People really have to ponder on this one thing though: what does the high expenses of flora expo in Taipei really accomplish for Taiwan? Do Taipei citizens feel any better, more secure after the flora expo? How does the whole Taiwan feel about it? Shouldn’t the money be spent on something more worth while? The lack of strategic direction for Taipei is really scary. They can spend millions, putting Taipei City in huge deficit, to accomplish absolute NOTHING. I would say to pan green, don’t give up. Hau might have won the election, but their policy is absolutely a disaster when you look at it from the long-term perspective. Keep examining them, and truth will triumph.  (But again for those who don’t care…you simply just cannot win them over, and that is the unfortunate reality)

However, for DPP’s own benefits, I think it’s better for them to take this as losing (or at least not winning) and reassess: where they can win, where they cannot win, and how to win in the former completely.  (where in this case is not just geographical, but demographical and social as well).

There are a few things that worry me though:
KMT will interpret this as an approval of ECFA and further leaning toward China.  Given KMT’s past record of moving ahead even without solid support, approximately 45% support might seem to be enough for them to continue the current trend. The problem is not for DPP, but for Taiwan overall. Because strategically speaking KMT could create a huge blunder for Taiwan in the next 2 years.

PS.  The shooting of Sean Lien, some think it has a negative impact on DPP etc.  However, just how big or small the effects are is really difficult to assess.  Suffice to say though the shooting might add to the inaccuracy of the election.  In any case, I just hope things become clear later and KMT won’t try to hide stuff (because some of their politicians did try to use to incident to rally their supporters…they might try to exaggerate or cover up things to save face…we will have to wait and see).  However, I think overall it could not just be because of that single bullet….And if there are people who vote for KMT based on a single incident,  can DPP ever gain their supports anyway?

Less than 30 Days for Metropolitan Elections

The five metropolitan elections are coming soon (Nov 27, 2010).  I think for the first time, DPP really have winning chances in all 5 cities.  To me, the choice is quite obvious, because each DPP candidate in each city is just superior.

However, I am not totally optimistic about the situation yet.  Taipei City, New Taipei City and Taichung City are still traditional KMT strong hold.  Although their candidates are really weak, the survey still shows 50-50 in both Taipei City and KMT’s Hu with a slight edge over DPP’s Su.  But there is still a month to go, so many things can happen. 

DPP apparently also gain quite a food hold in younger voters, which is quite an achievement in itself.  However, they really have to mobilize these younger people to vote in order to turn support into results.

A Puzzling Problem DPP Should Ponder On

Liberty Times did a poll that had some interesting result, namely that in Taipei City more females support KMT’s Hau (40.59% over 32.75%), and more males support DPP’s Su (42.47% over 32.85%).  Now why is that?

First of all, we can rule out sex appeal, which might be the reason for Ma (although I fail to see it) but not for Hau, because you can hardly call Hau as handsome or charismatic.  Granted, Su’s appearance is older and less attractive, but his lack of attractiveness should not contribute to Hau’s attractiveness.  Furthermore, I am sure most people, excluding the idiots, know that they are selecting a mayor, not a husband, a friend or a prostitute, so I don’t think physical appearance is that huge of factor in this election.  Furthermore, Su’s persona is kind of unique and different which should helped him stand out actually.

The question then becomes, why DPP consistently fail to attract more female voters?  The same thing happened in 2008 presidential election…and if my memory serves me correctly, I don’t think DPP had much advantage in attracting female voters even if the candidate is female (and KMT’s candidate is male).  Looking at Ma, it is even more puzzling.  There are tons of guys that are more handsome than him, so why is it that a lot of females think him attractive….could this be some sort of long time media implementation into the female mind?

Therefore, I think DPP might want to look into this a bit, if it wants to have more success in the coming elections, including 2012 presidential election.  Why is KMT able to appeal to more female voters, even though it sucks big time?  What is the general difference between males’ and females’ the mindset and access of information and community?  Who has more influence on the female voters? 

The fate of Taiwan might rest on this.

KMT Really Likes to Misinterpret Others’ Idea

KMT is once again at it.  Now Ma invite a bunch of economics and business “masters” to Taiwan, to create the sense that all the masters support ECFA etc.  The problem is, do these masters truly understand what ECFA is?  Do they know the political implication, not just economic implication?

Furthermore, do Ma really understand these “master’s” work?

I think the answers to all these questions are NO.

While I really like the work of some of these masters, such as Michael Porter’s “On Competition,” I really don’t see how some of these work can be link to ECFA or an economic policies that depends on China.  For example, you can actually uses the theories and principles in “On Competition, ” such as the Diamond theory, combined with the past experience and current situation of Taiwan to argue against policies similar to ECFA.  Furthermore, “On Competition” emphasizes the importance of industry cluster and  the role government has in it, not on FTA or shit like ECFA.  And I have no fucking clue how Christensen’s work can be related to ECFA at all.   As for 大前研一, I think he is full of it.  So I don’t really care what he says.

Also, as pointed out by Ghost_twtw in another one of his nice blog, No ECFA (No FTA) does not mean NO TRADE.  Japan and the US trades a lot with each other but they have no FTA.  However, KMT is now trying to lose people’s focus and equate NO ECFA with NO TRADE.  Any rational people will know immediately this is BS, but as shown before during 2008 presidential election, KMT media can turn pure BS into gold (people who forgot can go to YouTube and immerse themselves in Ma’s presidential election campaign commercial once again)…and some morons will actually believe in them.  Therefore, DPP needs to be aware of this tactics used by KMT and counter effectively.

KMT Using the Same Strategy Once Again

If one bother to read the pro-China and pro-KMT’s China Times, one will notice now KMT is once again trying to use the “WE ARE THE SAME” strategy.  Now this shitty newspaper is trying to project the impression that Su and DPP do not really opposes ECFA.  They only do that to win pan green votes etc.

This smear strategy is actually quite clever.  If it succeeds, it brings KMT a few benefits:

  1. KMT can now justify ECFA and its inappropriate process.  Thus it decreases resistance and help Ma low rating.
  2. KMT can stabilize its own support.

This is the similar to the “pan blue and pan green both suck” slogan strategy pan blue uses for years.  Granted, there are scums in both parties, just like there are bad people in any organization and society.  However, that does not mean “both sucks.”  KMT’s structural problem is rooted in its core and that makes the party much worse than DPP.  This can be easily observed from its organizational structure and the lousy performance KMT had in many of its governed area for many years.

The only problem for the KMT of course is…who the hell is actually believing in what China Times says nowadays anyway.  It is run by a pro-CCP owner after all.